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| Wednesday is All About Dot Plot and Powell | ||
| 12/9/2025 3:18 PM | ||
| Wednesday is All About Dot Plot and Powell Bonds lost ground moderately and logically on Tuesday in response to the JOLTS data. From here, this week"s volatility potential hinges on the Fed. Fed Funds Futures suggest that there"s been no change in rate cut prospects for Wednesday"s meeting. It remains...Read More | ||
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| Can The Fed Pull Mortgage Rates Off The Ceiling? | ||
| 12/9/2025 2:59 PM | ||
| Mortgage rates were surprisingly steady on Tuesday with most lenders roughly in line with Monday"s levels. Why surprising? Because the bond market was noticeably weaker and bonds dictate day to day mortgage rate movement. In Tuesday"s case, we can actually reconcile the steadiness with the timing of bond market movement. Specifically, bonds ...Read More | ||
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| Home Equity, Borrower Mining, Flood Tools; Milliman/MorVest Deal; Credit Cost News; Prepayments Slowing | ||
| 12/9/2025 10:43 AM | ||
| “Seminar ‘How to avoid frauds’ is canceled. Tickets are non-refundable.” Collectively, we don’t want mortgage fraud, right? It’s a non-partisan issue. A grand jury rejected a new mortgage fraud indictment against New York Attorney General Letitia James. Meanwhile, it must be difficult living under a constant microscope, and yesterday a story broke ...Read More | ||
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| Job Openings Data Causing Weakness in Bonds | ||
| 12/9/2025 10:36 AM | ||
| Tuesday is a fairly straightforward session for the bond market. By now, we assume most of the pre-Fed positioning would be out of the way, and we know there was a decent amount of anticipation for the JOLTS data (job openings and labor turnover survey). True to form, volume spiked to its highest levels since the 11/20 delayed release of the ...Read More | ||
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| Pre Fed Jitters? Not Exactly | ||
| 12/8/2025 3:26 PM | ||
| Pre Fed Jitters? Not Exactly Both stocks and bonds began to swoon moments after this morning"s 9:30am NYSE open. That sort of pervasive selling is often seen when the Fed"s rate cut outlook is deteriorating. With the Fed on deck Wednesday, it would be easy to slap "pre-Fed jitters" on the label of today"s s...Read More | ||
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| Mortgage Rates Start Week Near 3 Month Highs | ||
| 12/8/2025 3:02 PM | ||
| Both stocks and bonds lost ground on Monday. This pushed mortgage rates up near their highest levels in just over 3 months (because mortgages are based on bond prices). To put the 3-month highs in perspective, today"s rates are right in line with those seen 2 weeks ago. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] When we see a larger-than-average shift in ra...Read More | ||
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| Non-Agency, DSCR, eSignature, Data Analysis Tools; Deep Dive on "Fed Week" | ||
| 12/8/2025 10:26 AM | ||
| “Blimps are one of the only forms of advertisement people are actually excited to see.” “Rob, we see all kinds of companies advertising at conferences. We are trying to lower our cost per loan, and I am doing a more formal review of third-party providers. I am wondering if there is a list of vendors who focus on certain areas out there?” Yup: a ver...Read More | ||
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| Yields Testing Range Ceiling Ahead of Auctions, Data, And The Fed | ||
| 12/8/2025 9:07 AM | ||
| Bonds are under pressure yet again at the start of the new week--insult added to injury coming off of the worst week of selling since the late October Fed announcement. On that note, some of the recent weakness could be the bond market"s way of bracing for another unfriendly impact from the Fed. There"s also the need to make room for Treasury ...Read More | ||
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| Technicals Help Reconcile Selling Pressure | ||
| 12/5/2025 3:40 PM | ||
| Technicals Help Reconcile Selling Pressure In the realm of market commentary, technicals are a vastly overused explanation for past movement, let alone for the prediction of future movement. In this week"s case, however, the consolidation pattern in bond yields offers one of the only ways to understand the ...Read More | ||
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| Mortgage Rates Could See More Volatility Next Week | ||
| 12/5/2025 3:06 PM | ||
| Average mortgage rates drifted slightly higher to end the week, though they remained under the levels seen on Monday and Tuesday. Even then, none of this week"s movement was especially abrupt. That"s interesting considering there was a decent amount of economic data throughout the week. It could be that the rate market is simply waiting for the he...Read More | ||
