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| Bonds Pouting After Higher PCE | ||
| 8/26/2026 7:47 AM | ||
| To be fair, not all of the PCE data was higher than expected, but none of the top line numbers were lower than expected. Core PCE was on target (notably 0.246%, so it nearly rounded up to 0.3 vs 0.2), but headline inflation was a tenth of a point above the monthly and annual targets. Traders were apparently positioned for better news as the bond ma...Read More | ||
| Bonds Rally on Peace Deal Hopes | ||
| 8/25/2026 3:33 PM | ||
| Bonds Rally on Peace Deal Hopes The day ended as it began: with bond yields and oil prices dropping in unison based on hopeful headlines surrounding the Iran war. Perhaps the market was in the mood for a rally because the headlines weren"t particularly specific or compelling. Oil prices are closer to the mi...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Rates Follow Oil Prices Lower | ||
| 8/25/2026 2:41 PM | ||
| Fuel prices continue dictating most of the day-to-day momentum for interest rates and today was a notable example. Early this morning, news reports suggested progress in the peace process via Pakistani mediators. Oil prices dropped sharply in response and bond yields followed the move. Bond yields correlate with mortgage rates. When yields are fal...Read More | ||
| Webcasts, UAD 3.6, Compliance, Digital HELOC, MSR Valuation Tools; Rates Quiet | ||
| 8/25/2026 10:52 AM | ||
| Zillow and Redfin settled their FTC antitrust case, as we figured they would, and certainly technology was involved. With the increase in artificial intelligence, many teachers have gone back to having all writing done in classes, handwritten, or with an electric typewriter. Would parents rather have their child learning something in class from the...Read More | ||
| Oil Down, Yields Down | ||
| 8/25/2026 9:06 AM | ||
| No point in wasting time/words on analysis when cause and effect remains so simple. After news regarding potential progress is peace negotiations, an overnight drop in oil prices coincided perfectly with a drop in Treasury yields. The end. ...Read More | ||
| Tune Out The Noise (Part 2) | ||
| 8/24/2026 3:56 PM | ||
| Tune Out The Noise (Part 2) Last week, when Treasury announced higher per-operation limits for the buyback program, we advised tuning out the noise. Specifically, this meant that the announcement was not ever destined to be a material market mover or provide lasting relief for rates despite ample media cove...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Rates Sideways to Slightly Higher | ||
| 8/24/2026 2:59 PM | ||
| Mortgage rates are based on bonds, but whereas bonds improved slightly from Friday"s levels, mortgage rates are microscopically higher for the average lender. The issue is timing. Mortgage lenders set rates last Friday during a time of day when bonds were at their best levels. In other words, today"s improvement is only an improvement relative to ...Read More | ||
| Borrower Analysis, 1st Lien HELOC, Ginnie eNote Products; Webcasts Approaching; NEXA/UMortgage Deal | ||
| 8/24/2026 10:47 AM | ||
| “People make their wealth out of one investment. People keep their wealth by diversifying their investments.” Owning mortgage servicing rights has created wealth for many companies, and STRATMOR’s current blog is, “Those Monthly Payments Go Somewhere.” I am glad that all my 401(k) isn’t in Agency shares: Fannie Mae’s stock is down 42 percent this y...Read More | ||
| Slightly Stronger Start Mostly Due to Oil. Treasury News Fails to Inspire (Again) | ||
| 8/24/2026 10:13 AM | ||
| Once again, Treasury is out with news about bond buying plans with two officials saying the Treasury General Account (TGA) could be used to fund long-end buybacks. TGA is Treasury"s bank account. It gets money from taxes, Treasury issuance, tariffs, etc. Therefore, any way you slice it, Treasury bond buying = government spending, unlike Fed QE. At ...Read More | ||
| Incidental Weakness. Bigger Considerations on The Horizon | ||
| 8/21/2026 2:36 PM | ||
| Incidental Weakness. Bigger Considerations on The Horizon Without any data or compelling market movers, bonds came into the day light on inspiration. Low volume/liquidity left the door open for any determined traders to have a bigger-than-normal influence on the market. That arguably happened between 9...Read More | ||